![]() ![]() To produce Buy/Sell signals, the Squeeze indicator is plotted along with Momentum Oscillator. When the market finishes a move, the indicator turns off, which corresponds to bands having pushed well outside the range of Keltner's Channels. The Squeeze indicator finds sections of the Bollinger Bands® study which fall inside the Keltner's Channels. When the volatility increases, so does the distance between the bands, conversely, when the volatility declines, the distance also decreases. 2024 GDP outlook raised to 2.1% from 1.The Squeeze indicator measures the relationship between two studies: Bollinger Bands® and Keltner's Channels.This week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting was the highlight on the economic front. (DOOO), Oxford Industries (OXM), Semtech Corp. 28): Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA), BRP Inc. (CCL), Jefferies Financial Group (JEF), Braze (BRZE) (CNXC), nCino (NCNO), Progress Software Corp. 26): McCormick & Company (MKC), TD Synnex Corp. 29): PCE Prices, PCE Prices – Core, Advanced International Trade in Goods, Advanced Retail Inventories, Advanced Wholesale Inventories, Personal Income, Personal Spending 28): Continuing Claims, EIA Natural Gas Inventories, GDP – Third Estimate, Initial Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Final 27): EIA Crude Oil Inventories, MBA Mortgage Applications Index 26): Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods Orders, FHFA Housing Price Index, S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index What could challenge this outlook? Perhaps surprisingly hot PCE data would be enough to trigger some kind of a profit-taking pullback. Therefore, my outlook for next week is "Slightly Bullish". Back to next week's outlook, the uptrend is still intact, and I see little to get in the way of "more of the same" next week. ![]() Until then however, the economic data continues to come in relatively strong and this bodes well for corporate earnings. If inflation remains sticky and rates remain relatively elevated, this could surface credit concerns in some areas of the economy. To me, the biggest risk to markets won't really be on the radar until later this year, and that's the potential issues related to corporate debt refinancing. expectations), but markets have been able to overlook "sticky inflation" data so far this year, so it's unclear what will really rattle the bulls at this point of the rally. Next Friday's PCE Prices report probably has the most potential to move markets (if it contains any "surprises" vs. We are still a couple weeks away from the start of Q1 earnings season and there aren't a ton of potential catalysts for traders to focus on next week. Therefore, the path of least resistance still appears to be higher. However, none of these reasons will tell you when stocks are about to undergo a corrective phase. If there is a bearish argument here, it is either valuation (the S&P forward P/E is currently 21, which is a couple points above the five- and 10-year averages), a belief that we are overdue for a mean reversion pullback (more on this in the "Technical Take" section below), or a belief that sentiment and positioning is too optimistic and could be a contrarian indicator. Most of the major indices notched fresh all-time highs this week and the melt-up mode persists. Although there is no guarantee that the Fed will give the markets three rate cuts this year, investors cheered the fact that they maintained that forecast despite the recent hotter-than-expected inflation reports. Remember that volatility is non-directional, it can be up or down and refers to the size and/or velocity of the move. ![]() We certainly saw downside volatility in tech early in the week (SMCI experienced a "sell on the news" reaction as referenced last week), but then we saw upside volatility in the back half of the week thanks to a relatively dovish Fed (more on this in the "Economic Data, Rates & the Fed" section below). If you read last week's blog, you might recall that my outlook for this week called for "Higher Volatility," citing several potential market-moving catalysts (SMCI addition to the S&P 500 index, Nvidia GTC conference, FOMC conference, etc.). Wealth and Investment Management Solutions.Meet the experts behind Schwab's investing insights.Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) Investing.Bond Funds, Bond ETFs, and Preferred Securities.ADRs, Foreign Ordinaries & Canadian Stocks.Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) ETFs.Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) Mutual Funds.Benefits and Considerations of Mutual Funds. ![]()
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